Weekly S&P 500 Review – 25 May 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review – 25 May 2024

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.03% this week and closed at 5304. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX has a swing week this week, which made us feel it maybe time to call a tentative top.

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. We expect the Primary III will arrive 10,000 points.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7000-7500.

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, Micro 1 at 4607, Micro 2 at 4103, Micro 3 at 5264, Micro 4 at 4953, and we’re in the Micro 5 rally. The Micro 5 has reached our initial target at 5341 pivot, (although the uppper limit for Micro 5 will be 5450 pivot still alive), we would like to call a tentative Minute iii / Micro 5 top maybe arrive at 5341. If the market could move below 5180 it will be confirmed.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 5264 and 5180, while resistance is at 5360 and 5450. The short-term MACD bullish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 – 25 May 2024

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲0.03%，收於5304點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場大幅波動，讓我們認爲也許短期的高位已經到來，所以我們給與了5341點一個暫定的標記。

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。我們預計Primary III浪可以抵達10000點左右。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是7000-7500點。

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，我們進入Minute iii浪。Minute iii浪之中，4607點是Micro 1浪，4103點是Micro 2浪，Micro 3浪在5264點，Micro 4浪在4953點，我們進入了Micro 5浪。Micro 5浪本周抵達了我們的初步目標5341點（儘管上限仍然是5450點），我們認爲短期市場有機會抵達高位，所以我們給與了5341點一個暫定的Minute iii浪標記。如果市場未來幾周回調低於5180點，就會確認這個標記。

下週短期的支持位是5264和5180點，阻力位在5360和5450點。短期的MACD牛交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。