Weekly S&P 500 Review – 20 Apr 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review – 20 Apr 2024

The S&P 500 Index went down 3.05% this week and closed at 4967. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX has another pull back this week, which has reached our 1^st target of Micro 4 wave.

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. We expect the Primary III will arrive 10,000 points.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7500.

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, Micro 1 at 4607, Micro 2 at 4103, and the market move this week confirmed the Micro 3 at 5264, and we’re in the Micro 4 pull back now. The Micro 4 has reached our first target at 4984 pivot, and since it’s in an oversold status now, we expect a bonuce will come soon, before it arrive at the 2^nd target of 4818 pivot. We will continue to monitor the market movment next week.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4902 and 4818, while resistance is at 4984 and 5102. The short-term MACD extended a bearish cross, and the RSI is at extremely oversold status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 – 20 Apr 2024

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌3.05%，收於4967點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場繼續回調，Micro 4浪也只用了一周時間，就抵達了我們的第一目標點位4984點。

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。我們預計Primary III浪可以抵達10000點左右。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是7500點。

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，我們進入Minute iii浪。Minute iii浪之中，4607點是Micro 1浪，4103點是Micro 2浪，本周確認了Micro 3浪在5264點結束，我們目前進入Micro 4浪回調。本周Micro 4浪已經抵達我們的第一目標4984點，考慮到市場的超賣狀態，我們預計一個短暫的反彈會迅速到來，然後才會有下一波下跌抵達第二目標4818點。我們會繼續觀察市場未來數周的去向。

下週短期的支持位是4902和4818點，阻力位在4984和5102點。短期的MACD持續熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於極度超賣狀態。