Weekly S&P 500 Review - 6 Apr 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 6 Apr 2024

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.95% this week and closed at 5204. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX has another swing week this week, which make us call a tentative Micro 3 for the 3^rd time.

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7000.

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, 4607 is the Micro 1, and the market move this week confirms Micro 2 at 4103, and we are in the Micro 3 rally. The index has another swing week, while the price action provide a possibility that the short term top of Micro 3 maybe in. Again, it’s possible that the pull back will further extend to oversold level, or it maybe a false trend like before, we will wait for the market to confirm in coming weeks.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 5180 and 5102, while resistance is at 5286 and 5360. The short-term MACD enter a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 – 6 Apr 2024

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.95%，收於5204點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場繼續大幅上下波動，我們也根據這次波動，在5264點高位加入了暫定的Micro 3浪標記。

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是7000點。

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，我們進入Minute iii浪。Minute iii浪之中，4607點是Minute iii浪的Micro 1浪，Micro 2浪已經在4103點結束，我們進入了Micro 3浪上升。本周市場繼續大幅波動，但是一度突破了5180點支持，也讓我們認爲市場有可能短期見頂。然而，一方面有可能短期回調真的開始到來，并且以高度超賣結束；另一方面也可能如之前的回調一樣，只是市場的一個假動作，我們期待未來幾周市場給出答案。

下週短期的支持位是5180和5102點，阻力位在5286和5360點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。