Weekly S&P 500 Review – 16 Mar 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review – 16 Mar 2024

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.13% this week and closed at 5117. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX has another swing week from 5091 to 5180, which means 5102 pivot has been a battle ground for the 2^nd week.

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7000.

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, 4607 is the Micro 1, and the market move this week confirms Micro 2 at 4103, and we are in the Micro 3 rally. The index has another big swing this week, which may signal a short term pull back coming soon, and we have added a tentative Micro 3 at the 5189 high, and this will be confirmed if the index could pull back below the 4984 pivot.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4984 and 5102, while resistance is at 5180 and 5360. The short-term MACD continue a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 16 Mar 2024

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.13%，收於5117點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場繼續在5091至5180點之間大幅波動，5102點附近繼續成爲了牛熊雙方的主要戰場。

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是7000點。

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，我們進入Minute iii浪。Minute iii浪之中，4607點是Minute iii浪的Micro 1浪，Micro 2浪已經在4103點結束，我們進入了Micro 3浪上升。本周市場繼續大幅波動，讓我們進一步認爲短期的調整可能即將到來。我們目前在5189點高位加入了一個暫定的Micro 3浪標記，如果市場在未來數周回調到4984點下方，就可以確認這個標記。

下週短期的支持位是4984和5102點，阻力位在5180和5360點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。