Weekly S&P 500 Review - 20 Jan 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 20 Jan 2024

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.17% this week and closed at 4839. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX continue the rally mode this week and managed to conquer the key 4819 level.

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7000.

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, 4607 is the Micro 1, and the market move this week confirms Micro 2 at 4103, and we are in the Micro 3 rally. The rally this week confirms the Micro 3 rally is continue moving on, and the conquer of 4819 means the uptrend has entered a blue sky. The next key level to watch will be 4902, and Micro 3 is closing to the end now, although no one really knows when is the end.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4637 and 4819 while resistance is at 4954 and 4902. The short-term MACD is bearish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at overbought status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 20 Jan2024

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上升1.17%，收於4839點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場繼續了上漲模式，并且成功突破了4819點阻力，再創新高。

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是7000點。

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，我們進入Minute iii浪。Minute iii浪之中，4607點是Minute iii浪的Micro 1浪，Micro 2浪已經在4103點結束，我們進入了Micro 3浪上升。本周市場的上升確認了Micro 3浪上漲仍在持續，成功突破4819點阻力意味著這一浪牛市的完全確認。雖然Micro 3可能已經接近結束，但是沒有人確定知道它究竟能夠走到多遠。我們將持續觀察和等待下一浪回調的到來。

下週短期的支持位是4819和4637點，阻力位在4954和4902點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮窄， RSI在週五收市處於超買狀態。