Weekly S&P 500 Review - 28 Oct 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 28 Oct 2023

The S&P 500 Index went down 2.53% this week and closed at 4117. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX has another significant pull back, which opens the door for 2 options: a more bullish count, and a bearish one.

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 6000.

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. As I mentioned above, the market movement this week invalidate the 4607 as the Minute iii, and a more bullish count is we will put 4607 as the Micro 1 of Minute iii, and we’re in the Micro 2 pull back. At the same time, a bearish count also emerged, which counts the 3491 as Minor A of Minute ii, and 4607 as the Minor B, while we’re in the Minor C pull back. We still prefer the bullish count for now, while if the market drop below 3850, we will move to the bearish count.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4119 and 4057 while resistance is at 4179 and 4223. The short-term MACD continues with a bearish cross, and the RSI is at highly oversold status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 28 Oct 2023

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌2.53%，收於4117點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場持續大幅回調，讓我們取消了Minute iii浪的同時，開啓了一個更加牛市的數浪，以及一個熊市的數浪可能性，我們會在下文展開。

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是6000點。

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪。本周市場的變化，讓我們取消了4607點是Minute iii浪，并且加入了一個更加牛市的選擇，就是4607點是Minute iii浪的Micro 1浪，我們目前處於Micro 2浪回調之中；同時，一個更加熊市的數浪也出現了，就是3491點成爲Minute ii浪的Minor A浪，而4607點是Minor B浪，我們處在Minor C浪回調之中。我們目前仍然傾向牛市選項，但是如果市場回調超過3850點，我們會轉向熊市選項。

下週短期的支持位是4119和4057點，阻力位在4223和4179點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於高度超賣狀態。