Weekly S&P 500 Review - 14 Oct 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 14 Oct 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.45% this week and closed at 4327. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX has rallied for the first half of the week and close to the key 4394 pivot, but did not manage to conquer it and retreated back to 4325 pivot.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves,  the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 6000.

 

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii, 4607 as the Minute iii (4039 as Micro 1, 3909 as the Micro 2, 4186 as Micro 3, 4048 as the Micro 4), and we’re in the Minute iv pull back.  Minute iv has Micro a at 4335 and Micro b at 4541, and we’re in the Micro c wave now. The 4216 point maybe the Minute iv low (in a bullish scenario) or Micro c of Minute iv (if the bearish scenario further extends) thus we put a tentative remark there. Again, we expect the market will provide directions in the coming weeks.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4279 and 4325 while resistance is at 4394 and 4495. The short-term MACD enters a bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧  - 14 Oct 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲0.45%，收於4327點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場前期一度上漲并且貼近4394點，但是周四周五的回調讓大盤僅僅站在了4325點上方。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是6000點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪上升之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，4607點是Minute iii浪（Micro 1浪在4039點，Micro 2浪在3909點，Micro 3浪在4186點，Micro 4浪在4048點），我們處在Minute iv浪回調之中。Minute iv浪也有3浪或者5浪回調，其中4335點是Micro a浪，4541點是Micro b浪，我們處在Micro c浪回調之中。4216點低位目前有兩個可能性，在牛市假設下它是Minute iv的結束，在熊市解釋下它是Minute iv的Micro c，所以我們繼續維持暫定的標記，并且期待市場在未來數周給出答案。

 

下週短期的支持位是4279和4325點，阻力位在4394和4495點。短期的MACD進入牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。