Weekly S&P 500 Review - 12 Aug 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 12 Aug 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.31% this week and closed at 4464. We maintain the mid term trend for SPX is uptrend. The SPX tried to rally this week but failed, which confirmed 4607 has been a short term top, while the degree is still to be confirmed.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves,  the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, and Intermediate ii has finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally. Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 6000.

 

The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves, which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii, and we’re in the Minute iii rally of the Minor 3. The Minute iii wave should have 5 Micro waves, and we have 4186 as Micro 1, 4048 as the Micro 2, and 4607 is the Micro 3, and we’re in the Micro 4 wave. Again, the degree of coming pull back will determine the short term count, if the market stands above 4394 pivot then it’s the Micro 4, and if it breaks 4394 it will be Minute iv. We expect the market to provide guidance in the coming 2 weeks.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4394 and 4325 while resistance is at 4637 and 4495. The short-term MACD is in a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 12 Aug 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.31%，收於4464點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場一度嘗試反彈不過，也讓我們確認了4607點是短期的高位，然而回調程度仍然有待確認。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate iii的初步目標是6000點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor 1浪在4100點， Minor 2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor 3浪反彈之中。Minor 3浪會分爲5個Minute 浪，其中4195是Minute i浪，3808點是Minute ii浪，我們目前處於Minute iii浪上漲之中。Minute iii浪會分成5個Micro浪，其中Micro 1浪在4186點，Micro 2浪在4048點，Micro 3浪在4607點，我們目前處在Micro 4浪回調之中。如我們上周提到的，未來回調的幅度將會決定短期的數浪，如果回調在4394點找到支持，就以爲著目前的回調是Micro 4浪；如果跌穿4394點，則意味著Minute iii已經提前結束。我們期待市場在未來的幾個星期給出答案。

 

下週短期的支持位是4394和4325點，阻力位在4637和4495點。短期的MACD持續熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。