Weekly S&P 500 Review - 20 May 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 20 May 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.65% this week and closed at 4191. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX has a strong rally this week, which makes the current bearish count rest on the last resistance.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was finish at 3491. The Minor B is still extending, as we have 4100 as Minute a, 3764 as Minute b, 4195 as Minute c , 3808 as the Minute d, and we’re in the Minute e rally of Minor B. As we have described before, the current bearish count will be invalid after the market break though 4250, with the next stop at 4325. If the market break through 4250, it will mean the Intermediate ii pull back has finished earlier at 3491 (instead of Minor A), and we will be in the Intermediate iii rally. This will be the start of a new bull market and we shall see if market decides this way.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4119 and 4178 while resistance is at 4250 and 4325. The short-term MACD started a bullish cross, and the RSI is at slightly overbought status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 20 May 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上升1.65%，收於4191點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周有明顯上升，亦讓我們的短期熊市數浪抵達最後的阻力位置。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，Minor A浪在3491點。我們處於Minor B浪反彈之中，其中4100是Minute a浪，3764是Minute b浪，4195是Minute c浪，3808點是Minute d浪，我們目前處於Minute e浪反彈之中。如我們之前所講Minute e浪 作爲熊市數浪的上限是4250點，下一個阻力位在4325點。如果市場成功突破4250點，就意味著Intermediate ii浪已經提前在3491點結束(取代目前的Minor A浪)，市場已經進入Intermediate iii浪，亦即係新一輪牛市之開始。我們期待市場在未來數周作出選擇。

 

下週短期的支持位是4119和4178點，阻力位在4250和4325點。短期的MACD出現牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於輕度超買狀態。