Weekly S&P 500 Review - 9 Apr 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧
Weekly S&P 500 Review - 9 Apr 2023
The S&P 500 Index went down 0.10% this week and closed at 4105. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX has a few small swings this week, which makes no significant change to our current count.
Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.
In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.
In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was finish at 3491. The market movement this week make us consider that the Minor B maybe still extending, thus we adjusted down the 4195 to Minute c of Minor B, 3808 as the Minute d of Minor B, and we’re in the Minute e rally of Minor B. The Minute e rally should have 3 waves, and we have 4039 as Micro a, 3909 as Micro b, and we’re in the Micro c rally. As described before, the current count of Micro c could end at any time with a max at 4250, while 4178 also have strong resistance. We will watch how market develops in the coming week.
In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3950 and 4057 while resistance is at 4119 and 4178. The short-term MACD bullish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.
波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 9 Apr 2023
本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.10%,收於4105點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周窄幅波動,這種幅度的波動對於短期數浪並沒有太大影響,所以我們繼續維持上周的數浪。
我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷,是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後,我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪,其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點),Primary II在2016年的1810點結束,我們之後進入Primary III浪。
中期而言,Primary III又細分成5個Major浪, Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點),Major 2浪在2192點,之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪,其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束,我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌,我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。
短期來説,Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪,Minor A浪在3491點。而本周市場的大幅上漲,讓我們認爲認爲Minor B浪可能仍然在持續,所以我們把4195點下調為Minor B浪的Minute c浪,3808點作爲Minute d浪,我們目前處於Minute e浪反彈之中。Minute e浪應該會有3個Micro浪,其中4039點是Micro a,3909點是Micro b,我們處在Micro c浪反彈之中。如我們之前提到的,目前的Micro c浪已經滿足了反彈的要求,可以隨時結束,同時我們預期4178點會有比較強的阻力。我們會在接下來的一周繼續觀察市場的發展。
下週短期的支持位是3950和4057點,阻力位在4119和4178點。短期的MACD牛交叉在縮小, RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。
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