Weekly S&P 500 Review - 29 Apr 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 29 Apr 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.87% this week and closed at 4169. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX has a big swing week , which makes no significant change to our current count, while we made some small edit on it.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was finish at 3491. The Minor B is still extending, as we have 4100 as Minute a, 3764 as Minute b, 4195 as Minute c , 3808 as the Minute d, and we’re in the Minute e rally of Minor B. The Minute e rally should have 3 waves, and we have mark the more clear 4169 as Micro a, 4049 as Micro b, and we’re in the Micro c rally.  Again, we still expect the 4178 act as one of the last strong hold in the bear scenario, while 4250 is the last fort. Will the “Sell in May” become self proven again in 2023? We shall see in a few weeks time.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4119 and 4057 while resistance is at 4250 and 4178. The short-term MACD has a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 29 Apr 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲0.87%，收於4169點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周出現大幅波動，讓我們對於短期的數浪做出了細微的調整。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，Minor A浪在3491點。我們處於Minor B浪反彈之中，其中4100是Minute a浪，3764是Minute b浪，4195是Minute c浪，3808點是Minute d浪，我們目前處於Minute e浪反彈之中。Minute e浪應該會有3個Micro浪，我們把Micro a調整到了4169點，Micro b調整到4049點，而我們處在Micro c浪反彈之中。如同上周所説，4178點目前作爲熊市情況下的一個重要支持，另外4250點則是熊市狀況的最後堡壘。傳統意義的 “Sell in May” 即將到來，2023年是否會再次發生？我們期待未來幾周的市場給出答案。

 

下週短期的支持位是4119和4057點，阻力位在4250和4178點。短期的MACD出現熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。