Weekly S&P 500 Review - 22 Apr 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 22 Apr 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.10% this week and closed at 4133. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX has another quiet week week, which makes no significant change to our current count.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was finish at 3491. The market movement this week make us consider that the Minor B maybe still extending, thus we adjusted down the 4195 to Minute c of Minor B, 3808 as the Minute d of Minor B, and we’re in the Minute e rally of Minor B. The Minute e rally should have 3 waves, and we have 4039 as Micro a, 3909 as Micro b, and we’re in the Micro c rally. The Micro c rally faced the resistance at 4178 pivot and did not conquer 4170 this week, and we’re looking towards more clues to see a potential top, while a close below 4057 pivot will be the fist sign.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4119 and 4057 while resistance is at 4250 and 4178. The short-term MACD is close to a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 22 Apr 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.10%，收於4133點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周繼續窄幅波動，這種幅度的波動對於短期數浪並沒有太大影響，所以我們繼續維持上周的數浪。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，Minor A浪在3491點。而本周市場的大幅上漲，讓我們認爲認爲Minor B浪可能仍然在持續，所以我們把4195點下調為Minor B浪的Minute c浪，3808點作爲Minute d浪，我們目前處於Minute e浪反彈之中。Minute e浪應該會有3個Micro浪，其中4039點是Micro a，3909點是Micro b，我們處在Micro c浪反彈之中。Micro c浪本周在4178點阻力前止步，并未成功突破4170點。我們目前持續觀察可能見頂的跡象，如果下周指數跌穿4057點，那麽就意味著短期内有可能在4169點見頂。反之，向上突破4178點意味著反彈持續。

 

下週短期的支持位是4119和4057點，阻力位在4250和4178點。短期的MACD接近熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。