Weekly S&P 500 Review - 4 Mar 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 4 Mar 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.90% this week and closed at 4045. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX experienced a swing week with a pullback low at 3928, but closed with 2 days strong rally and reversed up.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. With Minor A finish at 3491, and we confirmed the the Minor B ends at 4195 ( Minute a is at 4100, Minute b is at 3780), we are in the Minor C fall down for now. The Minor C should have 3 Minute waves, and we’re in the Minute a wave down. This week’s swing registered another small wave up, thus we mark the 3928 low as the Micro a of Minute a, and we’re in the Micro b rally. There will be a resistance at 4057 pivot, we will continue to monitor how low this rally could travel.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3950 and 3854, while resistance is at 4119 and 4057. The short-term MACD bearish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 4 Mar 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.9%，收於4045點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周先跌後漲，在出現了回調低位3928點之後，連續有兩天出現大幅反彈。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，Minor A浪在3491點，而本周市場的調整，讓我們認爲Minor B浪已經在4195點結束 (其中4100點是Minute a，3780點是Minute b) ，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪仍然會展開3浪下跌，我們目前處於Minute a浪之中。本周的下跌與反彈可以視爲第一個小的波浪，所以我們把3928點標注為Micro a浪，我們目前處在Micro b浪反彈之中。4057點是一個關鍵阻力位，我們會持續關注本次反彈可以走多遠。

 

下週短期的支持位是3950和3854點，阻力位在4119和4057點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。