Weekly S&P 500 Review - 25 Mar 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 25 Mar 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.39% this week and closed at 3970. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX has big swings again this week, which registered 2 more small waves.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. With Minor A finish at 3491, and we confirmed the the Minor B ends at 4195 ( Minute a is at 4100, Minute b is at 3780), we are in the Minor C fall down for now. The Minor C should have 3 Minute waves, and we’re in the Minute a wave down.  With the market movement, Minute a has extended from 3 Micro waves to 5 micro waves, and we have 3928 as the Micro a, Micro b at 4078, 3808 as Micro c, 4039 as Micro d, and we’re in the Micro e wave down. We expect the Micro e will finish the Minute a below 3800 level. However, if the market reverse up and move above 4200, it will eliminate the bear count.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3950 and 3854, while resistance is at 4100 and 4057. The short-term MACD managed to get a bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 25 Mar 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.39%，收於3970點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周大幅波動，并且確認了兩個小的波浪，我們會在下文詳細解釋。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，Minor A浪在3491點，而本周市場的調整，讓我們認爲Minor B浪已經在4195點結束 (其中4100點是Minute a，3780點是Minute b) ，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪仍然會展開3浪下跌，我們目前處於Minute a浪下跌之中。本周的波動讓我們認爲Minute a浪進一步細分為5個Micro浪，其中Micro a浪在3928點，Micro b浪在4078點，Micro c浪在3808點，Micro d浪在4039點，我們目前處在Micro e浪下跌之中。我們目前預計Micro e浪會回到3800點下方，但是如果市場掉頭向上突破4200點的話，這個熊市波浪會被牛市波浪取代。

 

下週短期的支持位是3950和3854點，阻力位在4100和4057點。短期的MACD出現牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。