Weekly S&P 500 Review - 11 Mar 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 11 Mar 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 4.55% this week and closed at 3861. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX open higher on Monday with 4 days pull back in a roll, which confirmed Micro c wave is ongoing.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. With Minor A finish at 3491, and we confirmed the the Minor B ends at 4195 ( Minute a is at 4100, Minute b is at 3780), we are in the Minor C fall down for now. The Minor C should have 3 Minute waves, and we’re in the Minute a wave down.  Minute a will have 3 Micro waves, and we have 3928 as the Micro a. The market movement this week confirmed Micro b has finished at 4078 high, and we are in the Micro c wave pull back. The minimal target for Micro c will be at 3800 level, while a reasonable target will be at 3600 level.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3723 and 3854, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD bearish cross is widening, and the RSI is at oversold status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 11 Mar 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌4.55%，收於3861點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周前高后低，在周一創出高位之後，連續4天處於回調狀態，讓我們確認Micro c浪正在進行中。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，Minor A浪在3491點，而本周市場的調整，讓我們認爲Minor B浪已經在4195點結束 (其中4100點是Minute a，3780點是Minute b) ，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪仍然會展開3浪下跌，我們目前處於Minute a浪之中。Minute a浪也會細分為3個Micro浪，其中Micro a浪在3928點。本周的下跌讓我們確認了Micro b浪已經在4078點結束，我們目前處在Micro c浪下跌之中。我們給與Micro c浪的保守目標是3800點，理想目標是3600點左右，我們期待市場在未來數周給出答案。Micro c / Minute a浪結束之後，我們預計市場會出現一個數百點級別的Minute b浪反彈。

 

下週短期的支持位是3723和3854點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於超賣狀態。