Weekly S&P 500 Review - 5 Feb 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 5 Feb 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.62% this week and closed at 4136. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX index continue to move up and break through 4100 level, and as promised we will add a possible bull count on this.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The market movement in January make us to change the Minor A finish at 3491, and we’re currently in the Minor B bounce. The Minor B will have 3 Minute waves, and the Minute a is at 4100, Minute b is at 3780, and we’re in the Minute c bounce. The Minute c will also have 3 waves, and we have Micro a at 4015, Micro b at 3885, and we’re in the Micro c rally. The rally this week has surpassed our initial target at 4100 level, thus we have added the bull count as alternative, while we continue to maintain the bearish count as the preferred count. If the current rally could break through 4300, we will move the bull count to our preferred count.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4119 and 4057, while resistance is at 4223 and 4178. The short-term MACD bullish cross continues, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 5 Feb 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.62%，收於4136點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周繼續上漲，并且突破了我們之前認爲的關鍵阻力位4100點，所以我們也決定加入一個牛市的圖表選項。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，我們決定將Minor A浪的結束調整到3491點，而我們目前處於Minor B浪反彈之中。Minor B浪也會分爲3個Minute浪，其中4100點是Minute a，3780點是Minute b，我們目前處於Minute c浪反彈之中。Minute c浪也會分爲3個Micro浪，其中4015點是Micro a， 3885點是Micro b，我們處在Micro c浪反彈之中。本周Micro c浪的反彈突破了我們的初步目標4100點，所以我們也加入了一個牛市的圖表作爲備選圖標，同時維持目前的熊市反彈作爲正選。如果反彈超過4300點，我們會把牛市圖表變爲正選，并且調整中期數浪。

 

下週短期的支持位是4119和4057點，阻力位在4178和4223點。短期的MACD牛交叉持續， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。