Weekly S&P 500 Review - 19 Feb 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 19 Feb 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.28% this week and closed at 4079. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX continue to look for direction this week with little moves, thus we keep the tentative Minor B unchanged.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The market movement in January make us to change the Minor A finish at 3491, and we’re currently in the Minor B bounce. The Minor B will have 3 Minute waves, and the Minute a is at 4100, Minute b is at 3780, and we’re in the Minute c bounce. The Minute c will also have 3 waves, and we have Micro a at 4015, Micro b at 3885, and we’re in the Micro c rally. We continue to maintain a tentative Minor B end at the 4195 high. If the short term, we need a close below 4000 to extend the bear possibility, and a close below 3700 to seal the bear case; while for the bulls, a close about 4200 to continue the possibility and 4300 to seal the deal.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3950 and 4057, while resistance is at 4119 and 4178. The short-term MACD continues with a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 19 Feb 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.28%，收於4079點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周繼續窄幅波動，我們認爲市場仍然在進一步尋找方向之中，所以也繼續維持暫定的Minor B浪標記。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，我們決定將Minor A浪的結束調整到3491點，而我們目前處於Minor B浪反彈之中。Minor B浪也會分爲3個Minute浪，其中4100點是Minute a，3780點是Minute b，我們目前處於Minute c浪反彈之中。Minute c浪也會分爲3個Micro浪，其中4015點是Micro a， 3885點是Micro b，我們處在Micro c浪反彈之中。我們認爲市場仍然在尋找方向之中，所以繼續維持4195點暫定的Minor B浪標記。如果接下來幾周市場回調跌穿4000點，就可以延續熊市的方向，跌破3700點會確認熊市持續；如果市場繼續向上突破4200點，就意味著牛市可能性變大，突破4300點則意味著牛市重新到來。

 

下週短期的支持位是3950和4057點，阻力位在4119和4178點。短期的MACD持續熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。