Weekly S&P 500 Review - 7 Jan 2023 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 7 Jan 2023

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.45% this week and closed at 3895. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX index seems have chosen a short term path with the Friday rally.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the  Super Cycle 3, after Super Cycle 1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and  Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009. We’re in the Cycle 1 bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minor C also have 3 Minute waves, with Minute a at 3491 and Minute b at 4100, and we’re now in the Minute c wave down. The rally this week urged us to mark 3780 as the Micro a, and we’re in the Micro b rally towards 4000 points. After that, a Micro c pull back will bring us to 3200 points as our preferred target. However,  in extreme case, SPX may fall deeper to 2800 points depending how deep the recession goes.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3723 and 3854, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD bearish cross is narrowing down, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 7 Jan 2023

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.45%，收於3895點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周似乎找到了短期的方向，我們將在下文進行詳細分析。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 1 的牛市。Cycle 1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪也會分爲3個Minute 浪，其中3491點是Minute a，4100點是Minute b，我們目前處在Minute c浪下跌之中。本周的反彈讓我們認爲3780是Micro a浪的結束，我們目前處在Micro b浪反彈之中，我們給與Micro b浪反彈的目標是4000點左右。Micro b浪反彈結束之後，我們預計會有Micro c浪帶我們去到最初預計的目標3200點。當然，我們目前並不能排除進一步下跌到2800點的可能性。

 

下週短期的支持位是3723和3854點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。