Weekly S&P 500 Review - 3 Dec 2022 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 3 Dec 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.13% this week and closed at 4071. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market has reached another intraday high at 4100 this week, and closed above the key pivot of 4057 by weekend .

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minor C also have 3 Minute waves, and Minute a was at 3491. With the market movement this week, we would like to call a tentative Minute b finish by 4100 (with Micro a at 3911 and Micro b at 3698), and we will start the Minute c wave brings us back to 3200 area. This need to be proved by a closing below 3950 again in the coming weeks. However, if the market rally could break through both 4119 and 4223 pivot, we will consider to change the current count.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3950 and 4057, while resistance is at 4119 and 4223. The short-term MACD bullish cross continue to maintain, and the RSI is at close to overbought status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 3 Dec 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.13%，收於4071點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場繼續嘗試反彈，并且再度創出反彈新高4100點，并且成功地站在了4057點的上方。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪也會分爲3個Minute 浪，其中3491點是Minute a。本周的市場抵達了我們給與Minute b浪的合理目標，所以我們給與了4100點一個暫定的Minute b浪標記。如果市場在未來幾周回到3950點下方，就意味這這個預計是正確的，那麽接下來的Minute c浪下跌將帶我們至少回到3200點。然而，如果這次市場反彈可以突破4119點，我們會引入另外一個偏牛市的選項；如果市場反彈突破4223點，我們會傾向認爲熊市已經提前在3491點結束。

 

下週短期的支持位是3950和4057點，阻力位在4119和4223點。短期的MACD牛交叉仍然持續， RSI在週五收市處於接近超買狀態。