Weekly S&P 500 Review - 24 Dec 2022 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 24 Dec 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.20% this week and closed at 3844. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX index has experienced quite a swing week, which leads to multiple possibilities.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minor C also have 3 Minute waves, with Minute a at 3491 and Minute b at 4100, and we’re now in the Minute c wave down. As we discussed last week, we're expecting a Micro a of Minute c to arrive around 3700 area. The market reached 3764 this week, which is a bit short from our target, while it leads to 2 possibilities - the 3764 is just a “noise” towards Micro a, or it was the Micro a itself. We expect the market could give us the direction next week.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3723 and 3636, while resistance is at 3950 and 3854. The short-term MACD bearish cross extends, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 24 Dec 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.20%，收於3844點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。SPX指數本周出現了震蕩的走勢，這種走勢意味著未來可能會有不同的方向。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪也會分爲3個Minute 浪，其中3491點是Minute a，4100點是Minute b，我們目前處在Minute c浪下跌之中。如我們上周談過的，我們預期Micro a浪預計會在3700點左右找到初步支持。本周市場一度抵達3764點，雖然距離我們的預期有一定距離，但是也引向了兩個可能：3764點可能只是Micro a浪的一個噪音，也可能它本身就是Micro a浪。我們期待市場在下周給出方向。

 

下週短期的支持位是3723和3636點，阻力位在3950和3854點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。