Weekly S&P 500 Review - 17 Dec 2022 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 17 Dec 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 2.08% this week and closed at 3852. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. As we expected last week, the market finally close below the 3900 key support, which confirmed the Minute b rally finished at 4100.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minor C also have 3 Minute waves, and Minute a was at 3491. The market movement this week has confirmed Minute b close at 4100 (with Micro a at 3911 and Micro b at 3698), and we’re now in the Minute c wave down. Our initial target for Minute c remain unchanged at 3200, while we expect the Micro a of Minute c may finish around 3700 level, before a short Micro b rally.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3723 and 3636, while resistance is at 3950 and 3854. The short-term MACD bearish cross extends, and the RSI is at slightly oversold status on Friday closing.

 

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 17 Dec 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌2.08%，收於3852點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場如我們之前預料的那樣，跌穿了3900點關鍵支持，并且確認了Minute b浪反彈已經在4100點結束。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪也會分爲3個Minute 浪，其中3491點是Minute a。本周市場的發展，讓我們確認Minute b浪已經在4100點結束 (其中Micro a浪在3911點，Micro b浪在3698點)，我們目前處在Minute c浪下跌之中。我們給與Minute c浪的中期目標維持在3200點。Minute c浪會細分為3個Micro浪，其中Micro a浪預計會在3700點左右找到初步支持。

 

下週短期的支持位是3723和3636點，阻力位在3950和3854點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於輕度超賣狀態。