Weekly S&P 500 Review - 10 Dec 2022 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 10 Dec 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 3.37% this week and closed at 3934. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. As we expected last week, the market seems top at the 4100 top and reverse the course down. However, it still stand above 3900 key support level.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minor C also have 3 Minute waves, and Minute a was at 3491. We continue to mark the tentative Minute b at 4100 (with Micro a at 3911 and Micro b at 3698), and we expect the market to close below 3900 to confirm it. If the Minute c wave could be confirmed, the first target for Micro a of Minute c will be around 3800 points, before it move lower.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD enter a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 10 Dec 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌3.37%，收於3934點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場如我們之前預料的那樣，在4100點的頂部開始回調，然而經過一周之後，市場目前仍然站在了3900關鍵支持位的上方。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪也會分爲3個Minute 浪，其中3491點是Minute a。我們繼續維持4100點暫定的Minute b浪標記。如果市場在接下來可以跌穿3900點下方，我們會確認4100點的Minute b浪標記，并且認爲Minute c浪正在進行中。我們給與Minute c浪的Micro a浪的第一目標，是3800點左右，再往後的目標要視乎Minute c浪的强度而定。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。