Weekly S&P 500 Review - 5 Nov 2022 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 5 Nov 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 3.35% this week and closed at 3770. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. As we expected last week, the market made a pull back below 3800 area and confirmed a short term top at 3911 .

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minute a was at the 3491, and we are in the Minute b rally. The market movement this week confirms 2 options: Option 1 is the Minute b rally is sub-dividing, with 3911 is the Micro a, 3698 as the Micro b, and we will have a Micro c bring us back to 4050 area again to finish the Minute b. Option 2 is the Minute b rally has finished at 3911 high, and we’re in the Minute c pull back towards 3200 or lower. Nevertheless, after the Minute b rally, a Minute c will bring us back to 3200 or even lower.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3636 and 3723, while resistance is at 3854 and 3950. The short-term MACD bullish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 5 Nov 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌3.35%，收於3770點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場如我們上周預期的一樣，出現了一波回調到3800點下方，也確認了3911點是一個短期的高位。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中，其中3491點是Minute a，我們處在Minute b浪反彈之中。本周市場的發展，讓我們確定了兩個可能性: Option 1 就是Minute b浪反彈正在展開為3個小的反彈浪，分別是3911點為Micro a浪，3698點為Micro b浪，我們目前處在Micro c浪之中，這個反彈會到達4050點左右；Option 2就是Minute b浪反彈已經在3911點結束，我們目前處在Minute c浪下跌之中，目標指向3200點。無論Minute b浪反彈究竟是已經在3911點結束，或者反彈到4050點左右結束，之後都應該有Minute c浪下跌帶我們至少回到3200點。

 

下週短期的支持位是3636和3723點，阻力位在3854和3950點。短期的MACD牛交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。