Weekly S&P 500 Review - 26 Nov 2022 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 26 Nov 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.53% this week and closed at 4026. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market has reached another intraday high at 4034 this week, and managed to closed above 4000 for the first time since Sep 13th .

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, the Minor B at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The Minute a was at the 3491, and we are in the Minute b rally, with 3911 is the Micro a, 3698 as the Micro b, and we are in the Micro c rally. The market has been stuck in the narrow 3900 to 4050 range for 2 consecutive weeks, while we are still expecting the Micro c / Minute b rally will ended somewhere around 4050 area anytime soon. However, if the market rally could break through both 4119 and 4223 pivot, we will consider to change the current count.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3950, while resistance is at 4057 and 4119. The short-term MACD bullish cross continue to maintain, and the RSI is at slightly overbought status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧 - 26 Nov 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.53%，收於4026點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場繼續嘗試反彈，并且再度創出反彈新高4034點，并且成功地站在了4000點上方。這也是9月13日下跌以來的第一次。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中，其中3491點是Minute a，我們處在Minute b浪反彈的Micro c浪之中 (3911點為Micro a浪，3698點為Micro b浪)。SPX指數已經在3900至4050的區間橫行了兩周，我們仍然預期Micro c / Minute b浪反彈會在4050點左右結束。之後，Minute c浪下跌將帶我們至少回到3200點。然而，如果這次市場反彈可以突破4119和4223點，我們會調整目前的波浪標記。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3950點，阻力位在4057和4119點。短期的MACD牛交叉仍然持續， RSI在週五收市處於輕度超買狀態。