Weekly S&P 500 Review - 8 Oct 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 8 Oct 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.51% this week and closed at 3639. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market has a big swing this week with 2 strong rallies in the first 2 days, a consolidation Wednesday plus 2 large pull backs later in the week. A heaven for day traders.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, and the Minor B has ended at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. We continue to mark 3886 is the Micro a, and 4119 is the Micro b of Minute a.  We continue to put a tentative Minute a at 3584 as the Option 1, in which we expect a rally back to around 4100, we also add a tentative Micro c at 3584 as the Option 2, in which the rally will fail around 3900. And if the market continue to drop and takes out 3584 area, we will cancel these 2 tentative marks and wait for the next bottom.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3636 and 3588, while resistance is at 3723 and 3854. The short-term MACD starts with a bullish cross , and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 8 Oct 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.51%，收於3639點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場大幅震蕩，其中周一周二大幅上漲，周三曾經達到反彈新高3806點，隨後周四周五出現大幅回落 。股市出現大幅波動本身也是熊市的典型現象。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。我們繼續維持3886點是Micro a浪，4119點是Micro b浪。我們繼續維持一個3584點一個暫定的Minute a浪標識，作爲我們的第一可能性。在這個可能性之下，我們預計會有一個反彈到4100點左右。另外，我們也加入了Micro c浪作爲第二可能性，如果反彈到3900點左右結束，那麽就是第二可能性勝出。當然，如果3584點低位被跌穿，我們會取消這兩個暫定的標識，等待真正的市場低位出現。

 

下週短期的支持位是3636和3588點，阻力位在3854和3723點。短期的MACD出現牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。