Weekly S&P 500 Review - 22 Oct 2022 / 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 22 Oct 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 4.74% this week and closed at 3752. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. Although the daily move still is quite large, the market finally pick up some gains by the end of the week. We’re still expecting the rally will bring us through early Nov .

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3200.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, and the Minor B has ended at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension, with 3886 is the Micro a, and 4119 is the Micro b of Minute a.  we continue to mark a tentative Minute a wave at the 3491 low, and expect this to be confirmed with a capture of 3854 next week. The minimal target for Minute b rally should be at least around 3950 pivot, while personally I would prefer a rally to around 4057 pivot, before the Minute c bring us back to 3200 or even lower.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3636 and 3723, while resistance is at 3854 and 3950. The short-term MACD continues with a bullish cross , and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 22 Oct 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲4.74%，收於3752點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場雖然持續出現比較大的波幅，但是整體走勢仍然向上，我們期待著這一波反彈可以持續到11月初。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3200點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中(3886點是Micro a浪，4119點是Micro b浪)。我們繼續維持3491點是暫定的Minute a浪，并且認爲目前可能處在Minute b浪反彈之中，并且等待3854點的收復以確認這個反彈。我們目前給Minute b浪的反彈目標至少是3950點左右，合理目標在4050點左右。如果接下來數周，Minute b浪反彈真的在4050點左右結束的話，我們期待著Minute c浪下跌會帶我們至少回到3200點。

 

下週短期的支持位是3636和3723點，阻力位在3854和3950點。短期的MACD持續牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。