Weekly S&P 500 Review - 15 Oct 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 15 Oct 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 1.55% this week and closed at 3583. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market has a big swing this week again this week, with a 3491 intraday low on Thursday, while by the end of this week it went back to the 3588 pivot again.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which is divided into 5 Cycles. Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave has 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pullback. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. Minor A was at 3636, and Minor B ended at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. We continue to mark 3886 as the Micro a, and 4119 as the Micro b of Minute a.  With the relatively weak rally for the past 2 weeks, we continue to mark a tentative Minute a wave at the 3491 low, which expects the Minute b rally comes back above at least the 3900 level. However, it’s possible that the Minute a will continue to unfold till 3400 level as well.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3394 and 3588, while resistance is at 3723 and 3636. The short-term MACD starts with a bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

 

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 15 Oct 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌1.55%，收於3583點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場繼續大幅震蕩，其中周四一度出現新低3491點，不過收市仍然連續第三周處於3588點附近。亦令到整個10月目前缺乏明確方向。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。我們繼續維持3886點是Micro a浪，4119點是Micro b浪。我們將暫定的Minute a浪標識進一步下移到3491點，并且繼續等待Minute b浪反彈。我們目前給Minute b浪的反彈目標至少是3900點左右，上限是4100點左右。如我們之前所提過的，Minute b浪反彈的力度，會決定Minute c浪和Minor C浪的終點位置。

 

下週短期的支持位是3394和3588點，阻力位在3854和3636點。短期的MACD出現牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。