Weekly S&P 500 Review - 3 Sep 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 3 Sep 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 3.29% this week and closed at 3924. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market continue the pull back without much meaningful fight except Thursday, but it turns out that the resistance seems useless in a bear market.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. Minor A was at 3636 (with 4157 as the  Minute a, and 4637 as the Minute b). We continue to mark Minor B at 4325 and we’re in the Minor C wave down now, with a prefer target at 3636/3588 pivot. Besides that, we have identified a more bearish scenario, which 4325 maybe just the Minute a of Minor B, and we’re only in the development of Minute b of Minor B. Such scenario will support a deeper pull back to 3400 pivot or even lower. However, given the short term oversold status, we’re expecting a small rally coming next week but it will not change the mid term bear. 

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 4056 and 3950. The short-term MACD continue a bearish cross, and the RSI is at heavily oversold status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 3 Sep 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌3.29%，收於3924點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場對於 持續的下跌毫無還手之力，其中周四一度嘗試反彈，但是周五又變得徒勞無功。如我們之前提到的，熊市每一次反彈，都是減倉的好機會。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪 (4157點是Minute a浪，4637點是Minute b浪)。我們繼續標注4325點是Minor B浪的結束，而我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。我們目前給與Minor C浪的初步目標是3600點左右。與此同時，我們也給出一個更加悲觀的預測，就是4325點僅僅是Minor B浪的Minute a浪，我們現在處於Minute b浪下跌之中，這個預期會延長Minor B的時間，并且把Minor C浪的目標下調到3400點左右。不過考慮到短期的超賣，我們認爲可能會出現一個小幅的反彈，但是熊市中的任何短綫反彈，都不會改變中期的下跌趨勢。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在4056和3950點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於重度超賣狀態。