Weekly S&P 500 Review - 24 Sep 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 24 Sep 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 4.65% this week and closed at 3693. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market continue to pull back and it easily break a few support levels this week, and achieve a new low at 3647 last Friday.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, and the Minor B has ended at 4325, and we are in the Minor C extension. The market movement this week make us prefer the Option 2 last week as the primary count (although we can not rule out option 1 yet), where  3886 is the Micro a, and 4119 is the Micro b of Minute a. The oversold status of the market may lead to a rally very soon, thus we have put a tentative Minute a at the 3647 low. We’re expecting a rally back to around 4000 area. However, as we mentioned before, every rally in a bear market is the opportunity to escape.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3588 and 3636, while resistance is at 3854 and 3723. The short-term MACD continue a bearish cross is widening again, and the RSI is at extremely oversold status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 24 Sep 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌4.65%，收於3693點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場持續下跌，并且輕易跌穿了我們之前列出的幾個支持位，而且在周五創出了新低3647點。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪，4325點是Minor B浪，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。本周市場的波動，讓我們傾向認爲上周提到的可能性之二是未來的走勢（雖然目前無法排除可能性之一），也就是3886點是Micro a浪，4119點是Micro b浪。本周的超賣狀態讓我們認爲，3647點有可能是Minute a浪的結束，所以我們給與了一個暫定的Minute a的標記，我們預期短期之内會有Minute b浪反彈到4000點左右。之後的Minute c浪會帶我們突破3636點并且創出新低，具體的點位要視乎本次Minute b浪反彈再做估算。如我們之前提到過的，熊市的每次反彈，都是減倉的好機會。

 

下週短期的支持位是3588和3636點，阻力位在3854和3723點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於極度超賣狀態。