Weekly S&P 500 Review - 17 Sep 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 17 Sep 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 4.77% this week and closed at 3873. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. As we expected last week, the market rally one more day and reached a rally high at 4119, with a large reversal on Tuesday follow by the continuous pull back by the rest of the week.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. The Minor A was at 3636, and the market movement this week confirmed that Minor B has ended at 4325, while opens another option for the Minor C extension. As we discussed last week, the option 1 for Minor C is 3886 is the Minute a, and 4119 is the Minute b, while we’re in the Minute c pull back. This option keeps the 3600 level as target with max pull back at 3400 level. Option 2 will be more bearish, which counts 3886 is the Micro a, and 4119 is the Micro b of Minute a. This means we will have a Minute b rally later on, follow by a Minute c pull back later on. Such option opens a bigger window for the pull back and allows as low as 2400 level. We will continue to observe the market development in the coming weeks.

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 4056 and 3950. The short-term MACD continue a bearish cross is widening again, and the RSI is at slightly oversold status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 17 Sep 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌4.77%，收於3873點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。如我們上周所預期的，上周的反彈維持到了本周一的新高4119點，之後在周二掉頭向下，并且持續到了周五。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪。本周的市場讓我們確定了4325點是Minor B浪的結束，但是也同時為Minor C浪提供了不同的可能性。可能性之一，是3886點是Minor C浪的Minute a浪，4119點是Minute b浪，我們目前處於Minute c浪下跌之中。這個可能性會維持我們Minor C浪的3600點初步目標，以及3400點的極限目標。可能性之二，會是一個更加悲觀的預測，就是3886點是Minor C浪的Minute a浪的Micro a浪，4119點是Micro b浪，我們目前處在Micro c浪下跌之中，才完成Minute a浪。這個可能性會允許更大和更長的Minor C浪，并且將初步目標下調至3100點左右，極限目標可以到2400點。我們會繼續觀察市場接下來的走向并且做出相應的調整。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在4056和3950點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處於輕度超賣狀態。