Weekly S&P 500 Review - 10 Sep 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 10 Sep 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 3.65% this week and closed at 4067. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market finally managed to make a rally per our expectation last week, which may continue in the coming week, but will not change the longer term bear market.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. Minor A was at 3636 (with 4157 as the  Minute a, and 4637 as the Minute b). The 2 options of bear market still exists with this rally: Option 1,  Minor B at 4325, 3886 is the Minute a of Minor C, and we’re in the Minute b bounce. If the rally managed to go beyond 4157 will invalid this option. Option 2, 4325 is the Minute a of Minor B, 3886 is the Minute b of Minor B. This option will allow a larger rally up to 4300 before the Minor C starts. There is actually another small possibility that the whole Intermediate ii has closed at 3636 which I will call it option 3, but unless the market rally beyond 4637 this won’t be the preferred option. 

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4056 and 3950, while resistance is at 4157 and 4223. The short-term MACD continue a bearish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 10 Sep 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上升3.65%，收於4067點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。如我們上周所提到的，本周市場終於成功實現了一個相對有力的反彈，這個反彈有機會在下周持續，但是並不會改變中期的熊市。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪 (4157點是Minute a浪，4637點是Minute b浪)。熊市的2個可能性仍然繼續存在，我們在圖表上也給與了相應的標注：可能性1是4325點是Minor B浪的結束，3886點是Minor C浪的Minute a浪，我們目前處於Minute b浪反彈之中。這個可能性的最高反彈位置是4157點。可能性2是4325點僅僅是Minor B浪的Minute a浪，3886點是Minute b浪，我們處於Minute c浪反彈之中。這個可能性的最高反彈位置會在4300點左右。當然，我們之前提過的 “熊市已經在3636點結束” 的可能性也不能完全排除，但是除非反彈可以超過4637點，我們不會認真討論這個選項。

 

下週短期的支持位是4056和3950點，阻力位在4157和4223點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。