Weekly S&P 500 Review - 7 Aug 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 7 Aug 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.36% this week and closed at 4145. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market rally seems stalled this week even with a rebound new high at 4167 this Wednesday, while the market has also rejected to close lower both Thursday and Friday.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. Minor A was at 3636 (with 4157 as the  Minute a, and 4637 as the Minute b), and we’re in the Minor B rally, with the initial target for Minor B rally will be at 4223 or 4279 pivot. Although the market looks stalled this week, we’re still expecting a closing high around 4200 before the Minor B rally finished.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4057 and 3950, while resistance is at 4164 and 4223. The short-term MACD continue with the bullish cross, and the RSI is at slightly overbought status on Friday closing.

 

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波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  7 Aug 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲0.36%，收於4145點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場反彈似乎遇到阻力，儘管周三曾經一度反彈至新高4167點，但是 市場也拒絕了周四和周五的大幅下跌。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪 （4157點是Minute a浪，4637點是Minute b浪），我們目前處於Minor B浪反彈之中。我們給與Minor B浪的初步目標是4223和4279點。儘管市場本周在4164點附近遇到阻力，我們仍然認爲市場會在下周突破4200點左右，才會見到Minor B浪反彈的結束。

 

下週短期的支持位是4057和3950點，阻力位在4164和4223點。短期的MACD持續牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在輕度超買狀態。