Weekly S&P 500 Review - 27 Aug 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 27 Aug 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 4.04% this week and closed at 4057. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market tried to rally in the middle of the week, but the rally failed with a large pull back on Friday which confirmed our short term count.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3600.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. Minor A was at 3636 (with 4157 as the  Minute a, and 4637 as the Minute b). The large pull back this week has exceeded our 4100 target as discussed last week, which confirmed our preferred count of Minor B at 4325 high, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The 4056 pivot is a key pivot thus we expect some resistance here in the short term, while in the longer term we will give Minor C three targets: 1) 3723 pivot (minimal requirement), 2) 3636/3588 pivot (flat close with Minor A), 3) 3394 pivot (extreme case). We will explain more in details about such pivots later.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4056 and 3950, while resistance is at 4164 and 4223. The short-term MACD started a bearish cross, and the RSI is at slightly oversold status on Friday closing.

 

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  27 Aug 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌4.04%，收於4057點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場再度在周中嘗試上漲，并且一度抵達4200點上方，但是周五掉頭向下，也肯定了我們的短期判斷。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3600點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪 (4157點是Minute a浪，4637點是Minute b浪)。本周的大幅下跌，抵達了我們上周提過的4100點目標，所以也讓我們正式確認了4325點是Minor B浪反彈的終結，我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中。現階段，我們給與Minor C浪三個目標點位：最低目標3700點左右，正常目標3600點左右，極端目標3400點左右。如果Minor C浪回調超過3400點，我們會重新調整中期關於Intermediate ii浪的標注。我們會在下周進一步解釋以上目標背後的邏輯。由於4056點本身是一個關鍵點位，我們預期短期内會圍繞4056點有一定爭持，甚至反彈，但是每次短期反彈都是降低倉位的機會。

 

下週短期的支持位是4056和3950點，阻力位在4164和4223點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處於輕度超賣狀態。