Weekly S&P 500 Review - 13 Aug 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 13 Aug 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 3.26% this week and closed at 4280. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market rally resumed this week with a new high, which just arrived at our Minor B target of 4279 pivot mentioned last week.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. Minor A was at 3636 (with 4157 as the  Minute a, and 4637 as the Minute b), and we’re in the Minor B rally. As expected, the SPX arrived at 4280 target this week, and with other criteria we have at hand, we would like to call for a tentative Minor B top at 4280 pivot this week, with Minor C to revisit the 3636 low in the following months. On the other hand, if the market continue the rally and moves above next pivot at 4394, we may revisit the current count and move to a more bullish scenario.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4223 and 4164, while resistance is at 4394 and 4495. The short-term MACD continue with the bullish cross, and the RSI is at heavily overbought status on Friday closing.

 

*************

 

波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  13 Aug 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲3.26%，收於4280點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場持續之前的反彈趨勢，并且如我們所預期的一樣，抵達4200點上方，并且收於4279點附近。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中3636點是Minor A浪 (4157點是Minute a浪，4637點是Minute b浪)，我們目前處於Minor B浪反彈之中。如我們上周的預期，Minor B浪抵達了我們預期的目標點位4279點。儘管市場仍然可能繼續上升，我們目前認爲4280點可能就是Minor B浪的終結，所以我們給與4280點一個暫定的Minor B標識。如果這個預期正確，市場將在未來幾個月反復下行，直至再次抵達前期的3636點附近。另一方面，如果市場繼續上升，并且突破4394點的話，我們會調整之前的數浪，并且進入一個更加樂觀的預計。

 

下週短期的支持位是4164和4223點，阻力位在4394和4495點。短期的MACD持續牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處於高度超買狀態。