Weekly S&P 500 Review - 31 Jul 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 31 Jul 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 4.26% this week and closed at 4130. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market extended rally as we expected, and broke through the option 1 and arrived at our option 2 target as mentioned before. Thus, we have updated the short term count and chart accordingly.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4818, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, there will be 3 Minor waves in Intermediate ii. We have adjusted down the previous marks on the chart, and make 3636 as the Minor A of the Intermediate ii. That means the downgrade of previous counts, including 4157 became the Minute a, and 4637 became the Minute b, while the Minute waves mentioned before now become Micro waves. For now we’re in the Minor B rally, and the initial target for Minor B rally will be at 4223 or 4279 pivot. If the market rally way above it, we may also consider to further adjust the 3636 as end of Intermediate ii.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4057 and 3950, while resistance is at 4164 and 4223. The short-term MACD continue with the bullish cross, and the RSI is at heavily overbought status on Friday closing.

 

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波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  31 Jul 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲4.26%，收於4130點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場繼續維持短期的上漲，在上周突破了我們的第一目標，并且抵達了我們的第二目標。基於我們之前提出的條件，我們本周對於短期的波浪和圖表進行了相應的調整。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4818點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，我們依據之前提出的標準，對短期的波浪進行了調整，把3636點標注為Minor A浪，并且相應地，把4157點下調為Minute a浪，4637點下調為Minute b浪，同時把之前的Minute 浪下調為Micro浪 (4223點為Micro a, 4595點為Micro b，3810點為Micro a，4177點為Micro b)。我們目前處於Minor B浪反彈之中，我們給與Minor B浪的初步目標是4223和4279點。如果市場反彈大幅超過我們的目標，我們也會考慮加入另外一個選擇，就是3636點是Intermediate ii浪的結束。

 

下週短期的支持位是4057和3950點，阻力位在4164和4223點。短期的MACD持續牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在超買狀態。