Weekly S&P 500 Review - 24 Jul 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 24 Jul 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 2.55% this week and closed at 3961. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market continue the rally as we expected last week, while it arrived our Option 1 target at 4000 this week.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The Minor C will have 3 waves, the Minute a has finished at 3810, Minute b has finished at 4178 and we’re in the Minute c wave now.  The market managed to arrive our first target at 4000 this week, which confirmed the first option that 3636 is the Micro a of Minute c, and we’re in the Micro b up; while Option 2 is still on the table, which means the rally will arrive around 4200 and the 3636 low will become the Minor A of Intermediate ii. We will provide more details once the market arrive there.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3950, while resistance is at 4164 and 4057. The short-term MACD continue with the bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

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波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  24 Jul 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲2.55%，收於3961點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場如我們上周預期的一樣，出現了一波上漲行情，并且抵達了我們選項1的目標點位：4000點。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們目前正處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪又分爲三個Minute 浪，其中Minute a浪下跌在3810點結束，Minute b浪反彈在4178點結束，我們進入Minute c浪下跌。本周市場抵達了我們的第一目標4000點，也就確認了3636點會是Minute c浪的Micro a浪，我們正在處於Micro b浪反彈之中；與此同時另外一個可能性并未排除，就是反彈到4200點左右，并且讓3636點成爲整個Intermediate ii浪的Minor A浪。我們會在市場抵達目標點位之後，提供更多的細節。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3950點，阻力位在4164和4057點。短期的MACD持續牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。