Weekly S&P 500 Review - 17 Jul 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 17 Jul 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 0.93% this week and closed at 3863. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market made little change this week, and with even the bad news (nasty CPI) the market is not willing to go down.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The Minor C will have 3 waves, the Minute a has finished at 3810, Minute b has finished at 4178 and we’re in the Minute c wave now. The 2 options we mentioned last week still exist: 1) The market rally to around 4000 (3950 / 4057 pivot) to finish the Micro b and resume bottom finding; 2) The market rally to around 4200 (4164 / 4233) and the 3636 pivot may be adjusted up. After testing the 3723 support the market still managed to stay above 3854, thus we tend to be a bit more bullish in the short term.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD continue with the bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

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波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  17 Jul 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.93%，收於3863點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場沒有太多變化，即使周四的CPI創出數十年來的新高，市場也拒絕跟隨壞消息下跌，這對於短期來説是個積極的信號。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們目前正處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪又分爲三個Minute 浪，其中Minute a浪下跌在3810點結束，Minute b浪反彈在4178點結束，我們進入Minute c浪下跌。本周市場仍然在兩個選項之間抉擇：1)反彈到4000點左右(3950或4057點)，之後進入尋底；2)如果這次反彈上升到4200點左右(4164或4233點)，那麽市場就會進入相對更加長期的熊市。本周市場在3723點找到支持，并且在收市回到了3854點的上方，也讓我們更加傾向認爲短期仍然會繼續上漲。。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD持續牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。