Weekly S&P 500 Review - 25 Jun 2022 波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 25 Jun 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 6.45% this week and closed at 3911. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market have a strong rally from the 3636 pivot as we expected, while it’s as fast as many other bear market rallies.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The Minor C will have 3 waves, the Minute a has finished at 3810, Minute b has finished at 4178 and we’re in the Minute c wave now. The strong rally this week leads the market to the crossroad: on one hand it’s possible that this rally will fail around 4000 (key levels at 3950 and 4057) and resume down again, which means the bear market will finished with this last lag down; on the other hand, it’s possible that this rally will go beyond 4200 which extend the whole bear market. We expect the market will tell which options by July.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD is expecting a bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

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波浪理論/圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  25 Jun 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上升6.45%，收於3911點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場在我們提到的3636點開始了預料之中的反彈， 如同其他熊市反彈一樣，這次反彈也是力度很大的。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們目前正處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪又分爲三個Minute 浪，其中Minute a浪下跌在3810點結束，Minute b浪反彈在4178點結束，我們進入Minute c浪下跌。本周市場的反彈意味著市場進入了一個十字路口：一方面如果這個反彈在3950或者4057點左右掉頭向下的話，就意味著整個熊市接近尾聲了；另一方面，如果這次反彈上升到4200點以上，就可能會延續整個熊市的長度，我們也會相應調整短期的標注。我們期待市場在7月給出答案。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD即將進入牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。