Weekly S&P 500 Review - 18 Jun 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 18 Jun 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 5.79% this week and closed at 3674. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market extended the free fall this week with a failed rally on Wednesday, while find some support from our initial target at 3636 pivot.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The Minor C will have 3 waves, the Minute a has finished at 3810, Minute b has finished at 4178 and we’re in the Minute c wave now. The market reached our first target at 3636 just within one week, and although it’s still possible that the market could reach 3588 and 3394 in extreme case, we would expect some support at 3636 pivot with a rally back to 4000 level first.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3636 and 3588, while resistance is at 3854 and 3723. The short-term MACD is moving bearish cross continue to extend, and the RSI is at oversold status on Friday closing.

 

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  18 Jun 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌5.79%，收於3676點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周市場繼續了上周的大幅下滑，雖然周三曾經一度嘗試反彈，但是無疾而終。市場最終在我們上周提到的3636點目標找到一定的支持。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們目前正處於Minor C浪下跌之中。Minor C浪又分爲三個Minute 浪，其中Minute a浪下跌在3810點結束，Minute b浪反彈在4178點結束，我們進入Minute c浪下跌。本周市場抵達了我們的初步目標3636點，雖然市場可能會繼續跌到3588點和3394點，但是我們認爲短期應該會有一個反彈到4000點左右。

 

下週短期的支持位是3636和3588點，阻力位在3854和3723點。短期的MACD持續熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在超賣狀態。