Weekly S&P 500 Review - 11 Jun 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 11 Jun 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 5.05% this week and closed at 3901. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. As we expected, the market has finally make a decision this week, and the decision is to finish the Minute b earlier and continue with Minute c.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The Minor C will have 3 waves, the Minute a has finished at 3810. Since the market dropped below 4057 and 3950 support, we confirmed that Minute b has finished at 4178 and we’re in the Minute c wave now. Our first target for Minute c will be around the 3636 pivot, which also fits our medium-term thesis as well. The next target below that will be 3588 and 3394 in extreme case.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD is moving towards a bearish cross, and the RSI is at oversold status on Friday closing.

 

*************** 

圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  11 Jun 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌5.05%，收於3901點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。如我們之前所預料，本周SPX指數結束接近2周牛皮市并且做出選擇：提前結束Minute b浪并且掉頭向下。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們目前正處於Minor C浪下跌之中。其中，Minute a浪下跌在3810點結束。如我們上周所提到，本周SPX接連失守4057點和3950點關鍵支持，意味著Minute b浪提前在4178點結束，我們進入Minute c浪下跌。我們目前比Minute c浪的初步目標係3636點，這個也符合我們中期預測的3700點左右。如果市場進一步下跌，接下來的目標會在3588點和3394點。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD即將進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在超賣狀態。