Weekly S&P 500 Review - 28 May 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 28 May 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 6.58% this week and closed at 4158. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market finally managed to get a significant rally from the 3810 low, which makes us to confirm the Minute b bounce is ongoing.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The rally this week managed to move up above 4057 and 4158 pivot, which helped us to confirm the Minute a was finished at 3810. However, we’re not too optimistic on the Minute b bounce, which we’re giving 2 targets for now: 4224 & 4321. If the market could manage to go above 4394, we will adjust the short term count accordingly.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3950 and 4057, while resistance is at 4223 and 4279. The short-term MACD enter a bullish cross, and the RSI is at slightly overbought status on Friday closing.

 

 

 

圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  28 May 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲6.58%，收於4158點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周指數終於出現强勁反彈，并且突破了我們上周提到的關鍵點位，也讓我們確認Minute b浪反彈正在進行中。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。本周市場的反彈，達到了我們上周提到的4057和4158點，所以我們正式確認Minute a浪下跌在3810點結束，我們處在Minute b浪反彈之中。我們目前給與Minute b浪反彈的目標是4224和4321點。如果市場反彈突破4394點，我們會考慮調整短期的標注。

 

下週短期的支持位是3950和4057點，阻力位在4223和4279點。短期的MACD進入牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在輕度超買狀態。