Weekly S&P 500 Review - 21 May 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 21 May 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 3.05% this week and closed at 3901. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market tried to rally till Tuesday, but the large pull back on Wednesday makes the effort in vain, while it close almost flat for Thursday and Friday.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The market broke the support at 4057 area and 3950 area, while finally got some support at the 3854 pivot. The 3854 pivot continue to provide some support, while the SPX has reached as low as 3810, thus we move the tentative Minute a to 3810 as well. We will still need a move up above 4057 and 4158 pivot to confirm the Minute a finish.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3723, while resistance is at 3950 and 4057. The short-term MACD bearish cross enlarge again, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  21 May 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌3.05%，收於3901點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周指數的反彈只維持到了周二，周三出現了大幅度下跌，然而在周四周五市場基本上維持了上下波動， 但是平收的狀態。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪已經在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們現在進入Minor C浪下跌。Minor C浪突破了我們預計的4057點和3950點，直至3859點才找到支持，并且由周五的大幅上漲穩定了低位。本周市場反彈并未站穩4057點，并且一度下探到3810點，所以我們把暫定的Minute a標識移到了3810點。如上周所説，我們需要市場反彈到4057和4158點上方，才可以確認Minute a浪的結束。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3723點，阻力位在3950和4057點。短期的MACD熊交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。