Weekly S&P 500 Review - 15 May 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 15 May 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 2.41% this week and closed at 4024. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The market continue the free fall in the first 4 days of this week, while finally get some support from the low at 3859 with a nice Friday rally.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be around 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves, including the Minor A at 4157 and Minor B at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. The market broke the support at 4057 area and 3950 area, while finally got some support at the 3854 pivot. This is slightly beyond our initial estimation, while the rally on this Friday make us mark a tentative Minute a at 3859 low.  If the market could recapture 4057 pivot next week, we will confirm the Minute b rally with a target around 4300 points.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 3854 and 3950, while resistance is at 4057 and 4223. The short-term MACD bearish cross start to narrow, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  15 May 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌2.41%，收於4024點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周指數在前四日繼續維持自由落體狀態，直到禮拜四係3859點揾到支持，禮拜五有比較明顯的反彈。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點左右。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪已經在4157點，而Minor B浪在4637點。我們現在進入Minor C浪下跌。Minor C浪突破了我們預計的4057點和3950點，直至3859點才找到支持，并且由周五的大幅上漲穩定了低位。我們給與3859點暫定的Minute a浪標記，如果下周順利上漲至4057點以上，我們會確定Minute b浪反彈進行中。我們預計Minute b浪的初步目標在4300點左右。

 

下週短期的支持位是3854和3950點，阻力位在4223和4057點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。