Weekly S&P 500 Review - 9 Apr 2022 / 圖表派:一周美股回顧
Weekly S&P 500 Review - 9 Apr 2022
The S&P 500 Index went down 1.27% this week and closed at 4488. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX started the week high and follow up by a few pull backs the rest. It’s also the first weekly pull back since the Minor B rally from Mar 15.
Our long-term labeling on the SPX is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.
In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.
In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves. The Minor A has closed at 4157, and we’re in the Minor B rally. We continue the tentative Minute a or Minor B mark at 4637, which leads to 2 possibilities: Option 1 is the Minute a of Minor B at 4637, we’re in the Minute b pull back which will be landed around 4450, and reverse up again with Minute c towards 4800. Option B is Minor B finished at 4637, and we’re moving towards 3700 at Minor C.
In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4394 and 4279, while resistance is at 4495 and 4531. The short-term MACD enters a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.
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圖表派:一周美股回顧 - 9 Apr 2022
本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌1.27%,收於4488點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周SPX在前高后低,并且在3月15日的Minor B上升浪以來第一次出現了周綫級別的下跌。
我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷,是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後,我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪,其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點),Primary II在2016年的1810點結束,我們之後進入Primary III浪。
中期而言,Primary III又細分成5個Major浪, Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點),Major 2浪在2192點,之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪,其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束,我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌,我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。
短期來説,Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪。其中Minor A浪已經在4157點結束,我們正在Minor B浪反彈之中。我們繼續維持4637點的兩個暫定的標志,代表著後市的兩個可能性:其一是4637點是Minor B浪的Minute a浪,這就意味著我們會有Minute b浪到4450點附近,然後有Minute c浪反彈到4800點;其二是Minor B浪的結束,這就意味著Minor C浪會帶領我們前往3700點。
下週短期的支持位是4394和4279點,阻力位在4495和4531點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉, RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。
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