Weekly S&P 500 Review - 23 Apr 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 23 Apr 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 2.75% this week and closed at 4272. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX tried to rebound in the first few days of the week, but turn out to choose downtrend continuation.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves and the Minor A has closed at 4157. As we predicted last week, the market has go below 4350 thus the Minor B has confirmed at 4637, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. As promised, we have a few Minor C targets listed here: the first target will be 4220, followed by 3950, while 3650 will be the final target for Minor C.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4223 and 4115, while resistance is at 4279 and 4394. The short-term MACD continue the a bearish cross, and the RSI is at oversold status on Friday closing.

 

 

 

 

圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  23 Apr 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌2.75%，收於4272點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周指數前期嘗試反彈，并且一度突破關鍵阻力位，可惜後繼乏力，并且跌破我們上周提到關鍵支持位4350點。因此我們對於短期描述作出一定調整。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪已經在4157點結束。如我們上周預期，本周市場跌穿關鍵支持位4350之後，我們確認Minor B浪已經在4637點結束，現在進入Minor C浪下跌。我們給與Minor C浪三個可能目標：短期目標4220點，中期目標3950點，最終目標3650點，同時亦契合我們早期對於Intermediate ii浪的目標3700點的預測 (https://simonelliottwave.blogspot.com/2022/01/29-jan-2022-weekly-s-500-review.html )。

 

下週短期的支持位是4223和4115點，阻力位在4279和4394點。短期的MACD持續熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在超賣狀態。