Weekly S&P 500 Review - 2 Apr 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 2 Apr 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.06% this week and closed at 4546. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX managed to get a Minor B rally high at 4637 last Tuesday, followed by a pull back in the rest of the week.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves. The Minor A has closed at 4157, and we’re in the Minor B rally. We have put a tentative Minute a or Minor B mark at 4637, which leads to 2 possibilities: Option 1 is the Minute a at 4637, we’re in the Minute b pull back which will be landed around 4450, and reverse up again with Minute c towards 4800. Option B is Minor B finished at 4637, and we’re moving towards 3700 at Minor C.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4595 and 4531, while resistance is at 4744 and 4819. The short-term MACD bullish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

 

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  2 Apr 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲0.06%，收於4546點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周SPX持續在周二創出反彈新高4637點，之後的三天則持續下跌。。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪。其中Minor A浪已經在4157點結束，我們正在Minor B浪反彈之中。我們給4637點標注了兩個暫定的標志，代表著後市的兩個可能性：其一是4637點是Minute a浪，這就意味著我們會有Minute b浪到4450點附近，然後有Minute c浪反彈到4800點；其二是Minor B浪的結束，這就意味著Minor C浪會帶領我們前往3700點。

 

下週短期的支持位是4595和4531點，阻力位在4744和4819點。短期的MACD牛差距在縮小， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。