Weekly S&P 500 Review - 16 Apr 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 16 Apr 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 2.13% this week and closed at 4393. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX was in the down mode for 3 out of the 4 trading days, which made us adjust the short term possibilities.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is we are in the Great Super Cycle 3, which divided into 5 Cycles. The Cycle 1 ends at 1576 in 2007, and after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves and the Minor A has closed at 4157. The market move this week make us prefer that Minor B is probably concluded at 4637, when it’s less likely that 4637 is the minute a, unless the market could hold 4350 next week. If 4350 is broke, then we will confirm 4637 as the Minor B and give updated target for Minor C.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4279 and 4223, while resistance is at 4394 and 4495. The short-term MACD continue the a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  16 Apr 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌2.13%，收於4393點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周SPX一共3升1跌，亦令我們對短期標注進行左一定調整。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中Minor A浪已經在4157點結束。本周市場讓我們傾向認爲Minor B浪已經在4637點結束，而4637點是Minute a浪的可能性正在變小。除非市場在下周的4350點支持出現强力反彈，否則4350點失守之後，我們會確認Minor B在4637點，并且給出Minor C浪的目標點位。

 

下週短期的支持位是4279和4223點，阻力位在4394和4495點。短期的MACD持續熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。