Weekly S&P 500 Review - 26 Mar 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 26 Mar 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 1.79% this week and closed at 4543. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX continue it’s Minor B rally and go north in most of the trading days.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves. The rally this week confirmed that Minor A has closed at 4157, while we’re in the Minor B bounce now. The Minor B has reached our 2^nd target at 4495 and 3^rd target at 4531, and the final resistance lies at 4595. If the SPX go beyond that we will reconsider if Intermediate ii has finished earlier. On the other hand, it also means SPX could turn down anytime next week.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4495 and 4531, while resistance is at 4595 and 4744. The short-term MACD continue in a bullish cross, and the RSI is at over bought status on Friday closing.

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  26 Mar 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲1.79%，收於4543點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周SPX持續上升，并且在大部分交易日維持升勢。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪。本周的反彈讓我們認爲Minor A浪已經在4157點結束，我們正在Minor B浪反彈之中。其中Minor B浪已經達到超過第二目標4495點和第三目標4531點，并且向最終阻力4595點進發。如果下周SPX指數可以突破4595點，可能意味著Intermediate ii浪已經提前結束。另一方面，指數亦可能隨時掉頭向下。

 

下週短期的支持位是4495和4531點，阻力位在4595和4744點。短期的MACD牛交叉在擴大， RSI在週五收市處在超買狀態。