Weekly S&P 500 Review - 19 Mar 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

 Weekly S&P 500 Review - 19 Mar 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 6.16% this week and closed at 4463. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX went down on Monday but did not get a new low, while managed to get a rocket rally for 4 days and confirmed the Minor A has finished.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves. The rally this week confirmed that Minor A has closed at 4157, while we’re in the Minor B bounce now. The Minor B has reached our fist target 4450, and the next target for Minor B is 4495 and 4531. So it’s very possible we will see the SPX turn lower again in the coming weeks.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4394 and 4279, while resistance is at 4495 and 4531. The short-term MACD is in a bullish cross, and the RSI is at over bought status on Friday closing.

 

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  19 Mar 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲6.16%，收於4463點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周SPX低開高走，周一未能創出新低之後，連續4日反彈，讓我們確認Minor A浪已經結束。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪。本周的反彈讓我們認爲Minor A浪已經在4157點結束，我們正在Minor B浪反彈之中。其中Minor B浪已經達到我們第一目標4450點，之後的目標是4495點和4531點。所以我們預計很快會見到指數掉頭向下。

 

下週短期的支持位是4394和4279點，阻力位在4495和4531點。短期的MACD進入牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在超買狀態。