Weekly S&P 500 Review - 12 Mar 2022 / 圖表派：一周美股回顧

Weekly S&P 500 Review - 12 Mar 2022

The S&P 500 Index went down 2.88% this week and closed at 4204. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX went down for the first 2 days with a weekly low on March 8^th , tried to rally in the middle of the week but fail to sustain it.

 

Our long-term labeling on the SPX is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves. The weekly low on March 8^th extend the Minor A to March, and we’re now expecting the Minor A to reach around 4000. After that, a Minor B bounce may bring us back to around 4500 area, follow by a Minor C towards 3700 to finish the Intermediate ii.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4057 and 3950, while resistance is at 4279 and 4394. The short-term MACD back to a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.

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圖表派：一周美股回顧 -  12 Mar 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌2.88%，收於4204點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周SPX低開，其中周二創出新低。雖然周中嘗試反彈，但是無法維持，我們也因此調整了短期的標注。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪。本周二的新低延續Minor A浪到3月，所以我們目前認爲Minor A將在3月抵達4000點左右，之後會有Minor B浪反彈到4500點，然後是Minor C浪下跌到3700點完成Intermediate ii浪。

 

下週短期的支持位是4057和3950點，阻力位在4394和4279點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。